For the US, the bigger the coalition of countries joining it in any war, the better. "The military centre of gravity is China's integrated air defence system (IADS) in the south. by Robert Farley L Key Point: Escalation spirals are hard to. Professor Clinton Fernandes is a former intelligence officer with the Australian Army Intelligence Corps and now Professor of International and Political Studies at the University of New South Wales. "Ultimately, I do not see how America could inflict enough damage on China to force Beijing to concede over Taiwan, without using nuclear weapons. And Taiwan sitting neatly between the two offers that opportunity. With that in mind, I sought the views of four of Australia's most experienced military strategists, with 100 years of high-level military and strategic experience between them,to discuss what joining the US in a war with China could mean for Australians. A month earlier, Xi Jinping had told the Peoples Liberation Army: We should persist in using combat to guide our work; step up preparations for war.. Australians could wake up one morning to the news that we are at war with China. Allan Behm, now head of the international and security program at The Australia Institute, says were the US and China to go to war over the next five to 10 years the best potential outcome for the US is a stalemate. And that takes the issue of US-China military prowess back to the all-important issue of politics. This week, China suspended the China-Australia Strategic Economic Dialogue a diplomatic mechanism for trade talksand accused Australia of "disrupt [ing] the normal exchanges and cooperation . "For Australia the conflict would be devastating whether we joined the fighting or not. "That is why I think it would be a mistake for America, or Australia, to go to war with China over Taiwan.". And that makes the kind of island-hopping campaign used by the US to take back the Pacific from Japan in World War II no longer feasible. "A cross-strait invasion is the most dangerous scenario from China's perspective. The decision to go to war would not require a public discussion. He says that unlike the experience of the conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan that affected only the members deployed into the conflict and their families, a war with China would have an impact on all Australians "economically, financially and personally it is likely to impoverish us all; it may even kill most of us if it goes nuclear". Credit:AP. The consequences for us would be very serious in terms of the Australian economy, the impact on the Australian people and the ravages to our way of life throughout the land. "Furthermore, in the lead up to March 20, 2003,I was working at Oxford and bearing witness to significant questioning of the intention to invade Iraq through public dissent "not in our name Mr Blair". This is what a statesman should do as a risk averse response. Nor can a military modelled in its image. Beyond 10 years, who knows? Answer (1 of 34): I must assume Brian Greenhow is joking, but if he is not I must point out that wars aren't won by population numbers or imaginary 'allies', but by real Alliances, either historical or by treaty, and by technology, military hardware, political maneuvers, industry and money, lots . Those are easy targets. In this scenario, the US and its allies could respond by conducting airlifts to Taiwan. The US Air Force boasts nearly 2300 warplanes in service, with another 1422 aircraft in use for the US Navy and Marines, Janes calculates. In the event of a war: what would Japan, the Philippines, South Korea and Australia do? It can deny the United States control of the air within 300 nautical miles (556km) from China's coast. A separatist democracy against a legitimate government? I did not see anything like the same discontent in Australia. One accident. In 2004 U.S. manufacturing output was more than twice Chinas; in 2021, Chinas output was double that of the United States. China had 55 small war ships in 2020, more than double the number it had five years ago. "In a war involving Taiwan, US forces would be deployed over long distances from CONUS [Continental United States]. "Notwithstanding their entirely different circumstances, for Australia to support Taiwan against China would be similar to Australia's supporting Catalonia against the Castilians. Professor Clinton Fernandes, a former intelligence officer in the Australian military. "Taiwan doesn't have a Plan B that's the big problem. It runs between the Japanese islands of Mikako and Okinawa. "Australia's real utility is as a strategic asset, giving both legitimacy and credibility to the US decision to employ its very formidable military force, and at the same time providing the US with a secure rear that could guarantee logistic and operational support. "Unlike the experience of the conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan that affected only the members deployed into conflict, and their families, a war with China will have an impact on all Australians economically, financially, and personally. Is Australia prepared to pay the price to defend its friend Taiwan from China? "Melissa Conley Tyler and I (and others) have dealt with the Taiwan question in our joint paper. "This decision over the possibility of war with China could be made more difficult because of ANZUS. "When the US closed down Bagram airbase in Afghanistan the Afghan Army collapsed. The national broadcaster carried out the interviews with "four of Australia's most experienced military strategists" Former defence minister, Christopher Pyne, told an audience in Adelaide that Taiwan was the most likely next flashpoint in the region. If we lost a single frigate, that's around 170 lives in an afternoon. Despite this, U.S. military planners would prefer to fight a conventional war. Humans have become a predatory species. It has been since at least Monash's time. Despite its 1.9 million-strong army, compared to Taiwans cohort of 150,000, the task of taking its island neighbour and holding it is a mammoth military challenge. But where does that leave Australia and what does it mean to be a US ally. Five-centuries-old saffron and ginger found preserved in shipwreck off Sweden, Chinese migrants walked a gruelling 500km to Victoria's goldfields in the 19th century. "Even so, the UN has not been able to avert war. "Yet, as both [Opposition leader] Dutton and [Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Defence] Richard Marles have indicated in their various pronouncements on the matter, our default position is "all the way with the USA" wherever and whenever. Show map. With China's rise and democracy's decline, what will the global order look like in 2050? A Chinese close-in weapons system (CIWS) designed to shoot down incoming missiles during recent war games. Americas military power is very great, but Chinas military power, and especially its capacity to deny its air and sea approaches to US forces, has grown sharply, and is now formidable, Professor White warned. Australia is underperforming and leaving itself wide open as longstanding fears look set to come true. An earlier government tinkered with the concept of a reduction in the ten years of warning but did almost nothing about demonstrating seriousness. They would be forced to operate as part of a much greater allied unit. Major combat against the US means two nuclear-armed states fighting each other. "Relatively, we are a small country today and becoming even smaller in comparison to the company we keep. It depends how it starts. Sign up for the weekly What in the World newsletter here. "China's leaders could discreetly offer negotiations to Taiwan's leaders during a blockade before the risky step of ordering an amphibious invasion," Professor Fernandes says. Dr. Babbage is the author of the forthcoming book The Next Major War: Can the U.S. and Its Allies Win Against China?. If the US went to war with China, who would win? Even with robotic flying tanker support, these enormous ships must operate dangerously close to an enemy before their F-18 Super Hornets and F-35B&C Lightnings are of any use. Professor Hugh White, a former Deputy Secretary for Strategy and Intelligence in the Department of Defence, Admiral Chris Barrie, Australias most senior military leader asChief of the Defence Force from 1998 to 2002, Allan Behm, a former head of the International Policy and Strategy Divisions of the Defence Department. It means mine laying by air and naval units, particularly submarines, blockading ports, inspecting maritime traffic including commercial shipping, intercepting aircraft, and attacking adversary military forces as necessary. Who would win in a battle between the U.S. and Australia? It was Kevin Rudd who coined the phrase a "decade of living dangerously". "They're aggressively expanding their influence," he said. Credit:Getty. Chinese control of Taiwan would also strengthen Beijings ability to control the South China Sea by blocking the Luzon Strait and the Balintang and Babuyan channels, Control of Taiwan would make it easier for the PLA to reach Guam using long-range missiles and air power, extending its anti-access capabilities beyond the first island chain.. Far fewer know their real story. Brooking Institutions Michael OHanlon writes that the location of Chinas new fleet of attack submarines could act as a deterrent to US military escalation. The aim would be to foster confusion, division and distrust and hinder decision making. "For its part, Australia is casualty averse, as it should be. He believesa blockade of Taiwan by China is more likely than a cross-strait invasion. "Australia should take a position where averting war is a serious policy objective. (Handout photo from the U.S. navy) Admiral James Stavridis was 16th Supreme Allied Commander of NATO and 12th Dean of the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University. War over Taiwan would be disastrous, Australias chief of defence General Angus Campbell told a recent gathering. "Australia's armed forces add very little by way of capability to those of the US. The United States cannot win a war against China over Taiwan, four Australian defense experts have said in a series of interviews conducted by the Australian Broadcasting Corporation. The People's Liberation Army is the military arm of the ruling Chinese Communist Party, which oversees the PLA through its Central . All it would take is one wrong move. But will it be safer for women? The contemplation of war can only be justified after all other means of settling differences have failed, and we are a long way from reaching this position (over Taiwan)," he says. These threats from nature pose potentially disastrous outcomes that look inevitable; we have yet to find the statesmen to deal effectively with them. But this will take time. Behm says the impact on Australia of a war with China would be "profoundly and devastatingly different" from any other war this country has participated in since World War II. Mastro notes that in war scenarios the US wants to maintain the status quo in the region while China wants to change it. "If they think the blockade is failing they may declare victory by pointing to the damage already inflicted, or they might escalate to attacking US forces that are supporting Taiwan. "America would then have to decide whether to go to war to break the blockade.". China could also weaponize its dominance of supply chains and shipping. But the definition of ancestral territory appears to be changing rapidly. And Australia could be fighting for its survival. But Chinas been preparing to take and hold Taiwan by force for decades. And they cannot be rearmed at sea. Thinking of scale I am reminded that In 1944 the US alone out-produced the rest of the world combined in all war stores before the wars ended in 1945.
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